Fine wine analysis, using all the facts that count
Tag: Release
Bordeaux 2016 en primeur analysis of Haut-Bailly 2016, which has been released this morning at €84 ex-négociant, an increase of 27% on 2015, with volumes down 10% on last year:
You can download the factsheet (from which you can access the wine page and the interactive chart) here: Wine Lister Factsheet Haut-Bailly 2016
Bordeaux 2016 en primeur analysis of Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande 2016, which has been released this morning at €120 ex-négociant, an increase of 25% on 2015, with volumes down 15% on last year:
You can download the factsheet here: Wine Lister Factsheet Pichon Lalande 2016
Bordeaux en primeur analysis of Ducru-Beaucaillou 2016, which has been released this morning at £142 in the UK, an increase of 34% on 2015 (16% in € terms):
You can download the factsheet here: Wine Lister Factsheet Ducru-Beaucaillou 2016
Bordeaux en primeur analysis of Léoville Poyferré 2016, which has been released this morning at €66 ex-négociant, a 20% increase on 2015.
You can download the slide here: Wine Lister Factsheet Léoville Poyferré 2016
Château Margaux was the final first growth to release its 2016 wines en primeur yesterday (although we still await a second tranche from Château Lafite – see our blog post on the first tranche). The price of €420 per bottle ex-négociant matched that of Mouton and Haut-Brion, and represents an increase of 9% on 2015.
The reception was very positive all round, with pricing and volumes were both considered to be expertly judged, with one member of the Place de Bordeaux referring to the release as “very professional”, and another saying it was difficult to imagine any problems selling the stock, and “we’d be more than happy to hold a bit more back if necessary!”
A particularly astute move by the commercial team at Margaux was the decision to set a UK RRP this year, which effectively served to negate the weak pound, by curbing any possibility for UK merchants to allow themselves a larger margin, as they had done last year (when they quite rightly judged the immense demand for the very well rated 2015 – Wine Lister Quality score of 988). This means the 2016 represents a relatively modest year-on-year increase of 9% in pounds as well as in euros, rendering the RRP of £432 per bottle more palatable to UK customers.
Margaux also kept the trade happy releasing at least the same amount of the grand vin as last year, if not a little more in some cases, with UK merchants still clamouring for more. The second wine, Pavillon Rouge, was up 20% in volume terms. Bien joué.
In today’s blog we continue to explore some of the findings from our new in-depth study on Bordeaux, available for subscribers here. Having looked at the wines in which the trade has most confidence, we now turn our attention to Bordeaux 2016, and a key question: how might a château arrive at an appropriate en primeur release price?
Using average figures for 79 of the top Bordeaux crus, we explore two approaches. First, simplistically, we look at release prices of previous vintages, and apply the trade’s suggested decrease of 4% (see here for more) to the average 2015 release price. This is represented by the dotted line.
However, Wine Lister Founding Members were canvassed before having tasted the 2016 vintage, now considered to be excellent, and so the average suggested decrease of 4% on 2015 prices seems unrealistically low. Some châteaux have already released maintaining their 2015 price, which has been well received by the trade, while others have applied increases in euro terms, which in turn are amplified by the current exchange rate when converted into UK offer prices.
For each wine, it is also necessary to take into account the reception by the market of last year’s price, as well as this year’s relative quality.
The second, more sophisticated approach, involves comparing the average Quality scores from the last eight vintages to the current market price for those vintages.
The closest quality rating to 2016 is 2015, but as this vintage is not yet delivered, the most appropriate vintage for comparison is 2010. As such, we have applied the quality to price ratio from 2010, in order to arrive at a derived future market price for the 2016 vintage on average, according to its current quality assessment.
The average price per bottle could be expected to reach €161 in the marketplace in due course.
Margins taken by the négociant and then importers tend to amount to around 25-30%, although this varies from wine to wine.
That would take us to around €117 per bottle at release. Then we apply a 10%-20% “discount” to the consumer for buying en primeur, before they receive the physical product. This suggests an average ex-château release price of €93 to €105 (see chart).
In general, this would mean that 2016s should be priced below current market prices for 2015, and well below 2010 market prices.
For further detail, or to enquire about price analysis on specific châteaux, please email team@wine-lister.com.
All the facts on Château d’Armailhac 2016, which was released yesterday at £32.50 RRP / €32.40 ex-négociant:
You can download the slide here: Wine Lister Factsheet Armailhac 2016
Château Cos d’Estournel took everyone by surprise this morning when it released its 2016 vintage en primeur sooner than expected, at €120 per bottle ex-négociant, the same price as its 2015. Intelligence gathered by Wine Lister suggested that châteaux considered to have made “mistakes” with the release of their 2015 vintage en primeur might release early and at the same price as last year.
However, even the Place de Bordeaux was not expecting a second growth to release its wine the day after the first round of the French presidential elections, and just four days after the terrorist attack in Paris.
Cos d’Estournel is considered to have had a mediocre 2015 en primeur campaign compared to some of its peers, not necessarily pricing too high, but releasing too early. However, reports are that stocks did sell through later in year. Today’s move is bold, but could pay off, if Cos d’Estournel 2016 can harness the excitement that is growing around the Bordeaux 2016 vintage before it has too much competition.
© Château Cos d’Estournel
By sticking to last year’s price, Cos is keeping the Bordeaux trade happy, and early reports are that négociants are wholeheartedly getting behind the release. The weak pound means that Cos d’Estournel 2016 is being offered to consumers in the UK at £117 per bottle, a 10% premium on the 2015 price of £106 per bottle. This might well be palatable given the quality of the wine this year and the goodwill shown by the château in not increasing its euro release price. UK merchants certainly seem to be enthusiastic in terms of their messages to consumers so far.
Wine Lister’s UK partner critic Jancis Robinson awarded the Cos d’Estournel 2016 18 points (compared to 18.5 for the 2015). Our French partner critics Bettane+Desseauve, and our US partner critic, Vinous, will release their Bordeaux 2016 scores later this week.
This morning sees the ex-château release of Latour 2005, along with second wine, Les Forts de Latour 2011. We have put together two factsheets bringing together all the most important information about these two formidable wines, both approaching their drinking windows.
The 2005 Grand Vin has the third-highest Wine Lister Quality score of the last three decades, and looks reasonable value next to the 2009 and 2010:
The 2011 vintage of Château Latour’s second wine, Les Forts de Latour, is an economic powerhouse, with impressive price growth since its release:
You can download the slides here: Wine Lister Factsheet Latour 2005 / Wine Lister Factsheet Les Forts de Latour 2011
Yesterday saw the release of Pol Roger 2008. Heralded as “admirably long” and “really exciting” by Wine Lister’s partner critic Jancis Robinson, here we look at all the key data:
You can download the slide here: wine-lister-factsheet-pol-roger-2008
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